Wednesday, February 28, 2018

The West On The Brink Of Failure In Afghanistan

Int'l community needs to engage in stabilizing the country politically by listening to all Afghans, making sure equal distribution of power among all ethnic groups.

The U.S. and NATO mission in Afghanistan was to eliminate al-Qaeda terrorist network, dismantle the hardline Taliban, and ensure some important Western values such as democracy, women's rights and women's education in the country. 
Sixteen years on, the country still is in turmoil. According to U.S. intelligence reports about 20 terrorist groups including al-Qaeda, Taliban and Daesh are active in Afghanistan. 
The Afghan forces are losing ground to insurgents. Taliban fighters have reached the doorsteps of Kabul. The Afghan government is dysfunctional with all its three branches of power acting illegally and against the Afghan Constitution. 
The international community’s financial and military efforts in Afghanistan will be in vain if it does not engage fully and impartially in resolving the current political dispute among different parties. The dissatisfaction of major players within the government can lead to a civil war and the collapse of the political system, which will only pave the way for the Taliban and Daesh to gain more territory.
The current system of government—a coalition government—was not foreseen in the constitution, and is therefore in contrast with it. The base of this coalition government, as prescribed by the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, is a political agreement between the two front-runners in the 2014 presidential election runoff - both of whom publicly accused each other of orchestrating massive fraud in the elections. The truth is that former Secretary Kerry destroyed the very democratic system of the government in which the U.S. and other nations invested men and money. 
Three years down the road from the establishment of the National Unity Government (NUG), the government has failed to fulfill any of the three major articles of the agreement: reforming the electoral system and the electoral commission, distributing the long-awaited electronic or digital national ID cards and convening a grand assembly to amend the Constitution to legalize the position of the Chief Executive Officer. 
Even putting these failures to one side, the government is three years into its five-year term yet still needs to appoint many of its cabinet ministers. Eleven ministries, nearly 45 percent of Afghan cabinet, are run by acting ministers, seven of whom were given no-confidence votes by the MPs last November for their failure in spending the development budgets in their ministries. 
By law, those ministers should have been out of office within a couple of weeks, but the president ordered them all to continue in their positions to date. An order that is in complete contrast with the Afghan Constitution. The acting ministers' limited authority has added to the already corrupt system and has slowed down the public services even more.

The president appeared in a press conference on 11 July 2017 and told reporters that he plans to introduce the new candidate ministers to the Afghan Parliament in the next six months.

The parliament, which in a real democratic government is a check on the executive branch, also lacks the legitimacy to stand against the president, because their paychecks are dependent on the president issued decree.

The parliamentary election is nearly three years overdue. The MPs sitting in House of Representatives are illegal and against the law, while the Senate is one-third short of its members because the district council election never took place in the past 16 years.

Putting the corruption aside, the judiciary system is incomplete with three judges in the Supreme Court yet to be appointed by the president.

A major turn back to democracy in the formation of National Unity Government (NUG) was the demolition of true political opposition. Since both front-runners running the government, there's no real opposition to hold them accountable to the people.

The only opposition the government has is the civil society with its very limited resources. When the civil society raises the people's voices through organizing demonstrations and public gatherings, the government suppress them in a completely totalitarian method.

Instead of taking measures to improve security, the government continued to cover up the shortcomings of the security officials, partly for ethnic and partisan biases. The government's culture of impunity to officials made the security officials even more irresponsible and indifferent to the situation. While this foul approach encouraged the Taliban and ISIS to become even more proactive.

The oppositions became so courageous that they went inside a fortified military corps in relatively safe and secure province of Balkh in northern Afghanistan. Ten Taliban insurgents wearing the Afghan security forces uniform and using the Afghan defense ministry vehicle managed to enter the 209 Shaheen Military Corps and carry out an unprecedented attack where they killed more than 150 military personnel and wounded about 250 more.

The outburst of public frustration forced the government to take action. But to public surprise, the government disappointed them even more. After severe criticism of the public in mainstream and social media, the Afghan Defense Minister and his Joints Chief of Staff appeared in a press conference and announced their resignations. But just two days after the announcement, the president appointed both men as Afghan ambassadors to Jordan and Kazakhstan.

Following a deadly blast in the heart of Kabul in May that according to Afghan media killed more than 230 and injured more than 800 others the people came to streets and demanded the resignation of security ministers. To disperse the protesters, the Afghan police opened fire on the protesters and killed six people. No government ministers were fired or brought to justice for failure in the job or incompetence.

The Afghan president, an economist with delusion, trusts a finger counted number of people in the government who are all Pashtoon—the same ethnic background as president Ghani. The president’s dictatorship approach and his way of bypassing all players except people in his close circle have created lots of political opponents, including the first vice-president.

Recently the top government players such as first Vice President General Abdul Rashi Dostum, the Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani, the deputy to Afghan CEO Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq and the Provincial Governor of Balkh Atta Mohammad Noor created a coalition in Turkey calling for reform in the government and inclusion of political players from other ethnic backgrounds in decision making processes. Upon return to the country governor Noor spoke among his supporters. Warning the Afghan government and the international community, governor Noor said that if the government doesn’t bring reform and if the international community continues to side with one group while ignoring all parties involved, he will seek and accept “any support, from anyone”.

The first vice-president who is in exile in Turkey, because of the accusation of abuse of authority and sexual harassment, wanted to come back to country, but his plane was not granted permission to land in the Afghan territory. His plane was forced to return back to Turkey. Afghans across the country worry that the vice-president will definitely show serious reaction.

The president still runs the office his way and the West continues to back him politically and financially. President Ghani measures success in obtaining funds from international community. Enjoying the unconditional backing international community, the U.S. specifically, having no powerful political opposition, and having no legal parliament to impeach him, president Ghani has his luckiest days in office.

However, the recent statements by the UN, U.S. and NATO high-ranking officials indicate that the West has come to a realization that it will fail in Afghanistan and will fail badly unless it changes course and takes some serious actions to resolve the matters soon.

In a briefing to the United Nations Security Council on 21 June 2017, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tadamichi Yamamoto said, “Political fault-lines that emerged are increasingly along an ethnic basis, which is particularly worrying at a time when the Islamic State (Daesh) is attempting to provoke sectarian strife in the country through attacks against Shia Muslims.”

Expressing concerns over deteriorating political situation Mr. Yamamoto said,
“I remain concerned, however, that without changes in governance practices we are likely to face future crises that might be more difficult to contain.”

Speaking to reporters ahead of defense ministerial meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted lack of success in Afghanistan. Emphasizing on the complexity of war in Afghanistan he said, “We don’t think this operation in Afghanistan is going to be easy and we don’t think it's going to be peaceful … this year or next year or in the near future.” In contrast to the Afghan government’s approach for peace talks with the Taliban, he said, “As long as the Taliban believe they can win the war they will not negotiate. We need to break the stalemate and to enable the Afghans to make advances.”

NATO pledged more troops to Afghanistan and 15 nations have shown green light. It is said that NATO will deploy about 3000 more troops to Afghanistan. Currently, NATO has 5000 men on the ground to train and support the Afghan troops under the organization’s Resolute Mission.

Unlike Obama administration officials who often boasted about winning in Afghanistan, the new US administration officials are careful with their words and analysis of the situation in Afghanistan. Learning from the imperfect and nearsighted policies of Obama administration, the Trump administration officials admit their defeat in Afghanistan, while promising a workable and thorough strategy for the Afghan war.

Testifying to the Senate Armed Services Committee, the US Defense Secretary James Mattis said, “We’re not winning in Afghanistan right now and we will correct this as soon as possible.”

The U.S. is currently considering sending around 3,900 troops to Afghanistan, which will bring the total number of American troops in the country to 12,400.
All in all, if approved the total number of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan could rise to 20,400.  It is worth noting that at the height of war in Afghanistan the U.S. had more than 100,000 troops there.

While the U.S. is focused on a military win in Afghanistan, the truth is that there won’t be any long lasting peace or security in country unless the international community gets involved thoroughly in the Afghan situation. Providing funding to corrupt officials with no or little oversight will do no good to Afghan citizens.

To win in Afghanistan, in addition to training the Afghan security forces, the international community must put pressure on Pakistan to close down the terrorist training camps inside Pakistan and to act honestly in targeting terrorists inside its territory. But perhaps most importantly, the international community needs to engage in stabilizing the country politically by listening to all Afghans, making sure that equal distribution of power takes place among all ethnic groups and by holding the government accountable to its citizens. 
This article was initially published at Tolonews.com https://www.tolonews.com/opinion/west-brink-failure-afghanistan

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

She defied the Taliban: in exile Rahela Sidiqi fights for Afghanistan

An Afghan in exile, Rahela Sidiqi who stood against the brutality of the Taliban in the 90s to educate women and girls in Afghanistan now provides scholarships for disadvantaged girls in her home country. In this video, she talks about some horrible experiences she had with the Taliban.



Saturday, August 20, 2016

Afghan Cultural Festival, London

Hundreds of Afghans from across the United Kingdom got together in London for an afternoon of fun, food, live music and enjoyment in celebration of Afghan Cultural Festival.

The Afghan Cultural Festival aimed to illustrate various aspects of the Afghan culture. The Festival had something for every participant whether adults or children.
Afghans enjoying their time at cultural festival

Hamidullah Hamid came from Manchester to enjoy the concert and meet with his friends in London. He said, “ I come to concert to enjoy the live music and meet with friends and family here in London. It’s a lot of fun to meet all these Afghans in one place.”

Maliha Wahab, 52, mother of six came to watch the live performance of Ms. Naghma—a famous female Afghan Pashto singer.
Mrs. Wahab said, “I love Naghma and I always wanted to see her live performance. Today’s festival made my dream come true.”

Famous musicians and nine Afghan singers were invited from Canada, USA and Europe to perform live music for an audience of about 1000 people at Gunnersbury Park.

Ghulam Nabi, 17, an asylum seeker from southern Afghanistan has only been in the United Kingdom for a week. Master Nabi said that he feels lucky that his host family had another Afghan boy who knew about the concert. Nabi said that he has not been to any concert in his village, because so far as he remembers there has always been fighting in his village in Helmand province. He said, “It is unbelievable to see so many Afghan together and hear the songs in your own language. I cannot find words to express my joy and happiness.”

In addition to music the organizers put a lot of efforts to represent the Afghan culture in as many ways as possible. Afghan models on the catwalk showed different Afghan traditional dresses. Food stalls offered traditional Afghan meals like Qabili Palau (steamed rice cooked with lamb, raisin and carrot), Mantoo (Ravioli), Bolani (Pan fried pastry filled with potato) and Shor Nakhod (boiled chickpea) for sale.  One stall sold Afghan books in Dari and Pashto languages at discounted prices; the other stall had contemporary and traditional Kochi dresses for sale; another stall sold Afghan-style kite and string. On one corner of the park fun fair has been organized to entertain the children.

The veteran Afghan journalist and TV presenter Ahmad Ghous Zalmai came from Canada to host the event.  Emphasizing on the importance of Afghan Cultural Festival Mr. Zalmai said that such events can teach a great deal of cultural values to Afghan children who are born abroad. 

He said, “When the children come in these festivals, they see the interaction of Afghans with each other, they see the Afghan singers, they hear different languages of Afghanistan, and they make friends and network with other Afghans.”

Suleiman Halim an employee of Navab&Co Accountants Company—one of the leading sponsors of 5th Afghan Cultural Festival said, “Afghanistan is a very diverse country with several local languages and accents. In this festival, we tried to bring singers of different languages, so everyone can feel and enjoy their own music.”

Afghan Cultural Festival has been growing over the years. Initially, Paiwand Afghan Association initiated the idea of celebrating Afghan Cultural Festival, but over the years various Afghan companies and businesses have come forward to sponsor and support this event. The 5th Afghan Cultural Festival was organized and managed by Navab&Co with support from Kabul City restaurant, Elonat magazine, HH Studio and Mangal exchange and travel.  

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Afghan elections: Ballot Shortage, Calm before Storm

By: Zabihullah Noori

More than 7 million Afghans, one third of whom women, cast their votes on April 5th presidential and provincial councils elections.
Afghans flocked to the polling station and cast their votes, despite a series of serious disruption threats from Taliban and terrorists. However, the shortage of ballot papers in several provinces disappointed many voters who went to the polling stations just to find out that they could not cast their votes.

The turnout of voters in a relatively cold and rainy day not only was a clear indication of their frustration with current corrupt government and president Karzai’s pro-Taliban policies, but also a show of enthusiasm for a change and their support for democratic process in transfer of power from one elected president to the next. This was a historic day for Afghanistan. It was the first time in the country’s history that the transition of power could take place without any coup or bloodshed.

Just days before the election the Taliban attacked several key locations including site offices and headquarter of the Independent Electoral Commission in the country’s capital Kabul, killing people and causing chaos. The Taliban have vowed to disrupt the elections in any way they could. But determination of Afghans showed that they value democracy at the cost of their lives.

Alongside the general public, April 5th 2014 proved a historic day for the Afghan National Security Forces as for the first time the ANSF acted in collaboration with each other and ensured the security of voters and polling stations without the support of international troops. 
Apart from security threats, fraud and interference of government in the Independent Electoral Commission’s affairs was another big worry that most Afghans, but specifically the runners in the race had. During the electoral campaign period different government opposition political parties and candidates accused the incumbent president and government officials for abusing power and supporting specific candidates. But president Karzai has always dismissed such accusations and emphasized on impartiality of the government and his ministers.

As seen, the transparency of this year’s election was much better than the past two elections, in part, due to huge participation of the public. But the shortage of ballots in specific parts of the country showed the incapability of the IEC in its preparation for this important day.

The IEC claims that it had dispatched 600 ballot papers for each polling center, estimating a one-minute time scale for each voter in a ten-hour day mission. But the independent observers, the journalists and the voters in these centers reported that some polling centers run out of ballot papers in the early hours of the day. According to reports polling centers in Balkh, Herat, Samangan, Badakhshan, Jawzjan and Kabul provinces run out of ballot papers as early in the day as 11am.

When asked for explanation, the IEC officials denied the claims, but insisted in prosecuting the perpetrators, if their investigation finds any staff guilty of fraud.   

The ballot shortage, not only deprived people from practicing their rights and casting their votes, but also brought the thoroughness of elections along with the independence of Electoral Commission under question.

Perhaps it might not come as surprise that the ballot shortage was mostly reported in the North and West of the country, where the frontrunners Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, the main competitors to the Dr. Zalmai Rassoul—a candidate said to be backed by the president—had large number of voters.

With President Karzai cherry picking and appointing the entire commission’s members and with reports surfacing about the ballot shortages in specific parts of the country, most people accuse the Commission for organizing a systematic fraud.

As expressed by candidates spokespersons as well as voters through social media sites, they believe that the ballot shortage in North and West was planned by the Commission to stop the frontrunners from winning in the first round and to provide president’s favorite candidate with a chance to close the gap and make it among the top two in the race.


While official results are expected in two to three weeks, the candidates’ representatives have already begun to question the issue of ballot shortage in media talk shows. The upcoming days are crucial as the observers and media will closely monitor the process and will inform the public about the Electoral Complaint Commissions’ findings. Reports of any intentional wrongdoing by the IEC staff in favor of any candidate not only can undermine the results, but can also jeopardize the whole process. The ballot shortage issue seems to be the calm before storm.


This article was first published in the Eurasiareview.com on April 9, 2014
Disclaimer:  The photo published with the article in Eurasiareview.com was chosen by the site administrator.

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

انتخابات افغانستان و مشکل کمبود برگه های رای

ذبیح الله نوری

انتخابات شانزده هم حمل سال 1393 عليرغم چالش های امنيتی با حضور گستردهء مردم افغانستان سپری شد. باآنکه طالبان و گروه های تروريستی شان تهديد های زيادی برای تخريب انتخابات و به چالش کشيدن اين روند داده بودند، اما مردم افغانستان با حضور پررنگ و بی سابقهء شان درين پروسه ملی سيلی محکمی بر روی دشمنان وطن و مردم کوبيدند.
قبل ازانتخابات علاوه بر تشويش از امنيت انتخابات، تشويش ديگری که بيشتر مردم وبه ويژه نامزدان انتخابات را دامن گير بود، همانا مسئلهء تقلب درانتخابات بود. بيشتر کارشناسان و احزاب سياسی مخالف حکومت رئيس جمهور را به مداخله درامور انتخابات و مهندسی کردن نتايج آن متهم ميکردند. باآنکه رئيس جمهور کرزی همواره بر انتقال مسالمت آميز قدرت سياسی و عدم مداخله درامور انتخابات تاکيد داشته است، اما ازاينکه انتخاب نهايی اعضای کميسيون های دوگانهء مستقل انتخابات و شکايت های انتخاباتی توسط شخص رئيس جمهور، البته پس از معرفی کميتهء گزينش، صورت گرفته بود، استقلاليت کميسيون درمواردی تحت پرسش ميرفت.

رسانه های داخلی و خارجی همه و همه اشتراک وسيع مردم درين پروسه را ستوده ونقش مردم را درتعيين زعيم آينده کشورشان مهم تعريف کرده اند. ظاهراً درپايان اين روزتاريخی نامزدان رياست جمهوری نيز از روند انتخابات ابراز خوشنودی کرده و حتی برخی از نامزدان به رئيس جمهور کرزی برای مديريت اش از اين روند تبريکی نيز اظهار داشته اند.


و اما چالشی که درروزهای آينده پيش بينی ميشود، همانا پذيرش نتيجهء نهايی انتخابات است. با آنکه کميسيون مستقل انتخابات تاکيد بيش از حد برای آماده گی کامل برگزاری اين روند داشت، ولی طوريکه ديده شد کميسيون متذکره درين خصوص محاسبهء دقيق ننموده و ضعف مديريتی اين نهاد برای تهيه برگه های کافی رای دهی باعث آن شد که تعدادی زيادی از مردمان کشور درمناطق مختلف از حق رای شان محروم شوند.


درحال حاضر توجه رسانه ها و کارشناسان بيشتر روی سهمگيری مردم و روحيه آنها بخاطر اشتراک درين پروسه متمرکز است و به مسئلهء کمبود برگه های رای دهی کمتر پرداخته شده است، اما همينکه نتايج نهايی اعلام شود، بيشتر نامزدان اين موضوع را باخيلی جديت مطرح خواهند کرد.
پيگيری اين مسئله علاوه برضعف مديريتی کميسيون مستقل انتخابات، استقلاليت اين نهاد، سرتاسری بودن انتخابات و حتی نتايج نهايی را ميتواند به چالش بکشاند.

هرگاه کميسيون آماری دقيقی از تعداد رای دهنده گان درمحلات و مراکز رای دهی نداشت که به اساس آن برگه ها را ميفرستاد، پس برای جلوگيری از احتمال کمبود برگه های رای دهی بائيست برگه های بيشتر از حد تخمين را به مراکز مختلف ميفرستاد. و هرگاه کمژسيون ازقبل ميدانست که دچار کمبود برگه های رای دهی خواهد شد،  ميبائيست اين معضل را با مردم از طريق رسانه ها شريک ميساخت. کميسيون مستقل انتخابات استدلال ميکند که درهرمحل رای دهی 600 برگه رای دهی فرستاده است. يک محاسبهء خيلی ابتدايی ميتواند ثابت کند که اين ادعای کميسيون نادرست است. چون هرگاه فرض کنيم دادن رای برای هررای دهنده حداقل يک دقيقه وقت بگيرد،(البته بادرنظرگيری اين واقعيت که تمامی کارها توسط اشخاص با قلم و کاغذ به پيش برده ميشود، و هيچ کامپيوتر يا دستگاه الکترونيکی درکارنيست)  پس دريک ساعت، تعداد 60 نفر رای خواهند داد. که اين رقم درمدت 10 ساعت مساوی به همان محاسبهء کميسيون که 600 برگه برای 600 نفررای دهنده درمدت 10 ساعت است، ميشود. و اما طوريکه گزارش شده است، دربرخی محلات رای دهی، برگه های رای حتی در حدود ساعت های 11 بجه قبل ازظهرتمام شده و مردم نتوانستند از حق رای شان استفاده کنند.  حالانکه ميشود با يک ديد کاملاً خوشبينانه پذيرفت که واقعاً اين مشکل آنی بوده و هيچ غرضی درين ميان درکار نبوده است، مسئلهء که تعدادی قابل ملاحظهء شهروندان کشور از حق رای شان محروم شدند، آيا اصل سرتاسری بودن انتخابات را تحت پرسش نميبرد؟


و نکتهء آخر که حتی ميتواند استقلاليت کميسيون و نتايج انتخابات را به چالش بکشاند، اينست که اگر اين مسئله تصادفی بوده است پس چطور ميشود که برگه های رای دهی بيشتر در ولايت های شمال و غرب کشورو درجاهای کمبود شود که نامزدان پيشتازو رقبای نامزد متهم به داشتن حمايت حکومت شانس رای آوردن را داشتند. هرگاه نامزدی که توانسته باشد نزديک به 50  درصد آرا را از آن خود کرده باشد، ادعا کرده ميتواند که درصورت عدم کمبود برگه های رای درمحلات رای دهی ميتوانست برندهء انتخابات دردور نخست انتخابات باشد. و اگر نتايج نهايی چنان شود که بيشتر ازيک نامزد نزديک به 50 درصد آرا را کسب کرده باشد، پس اين موضوع چالش های جدی رادرپذيرش نتايج نهايی ببار خواهد آورد. جديت در پيگيری اين مسئله ميتواند کميسيون را به سازماندهی کردن تقلب درانتخابات متهم سازد، و طوريکه درشبکه های اجتماعی ديده ميشود، تعداد زيادی ازشهروندان اين کار کميسيون مستقل انتخابات را به "انفجارو انتحار درمراکزرای دهی" نسبت داده اند. باپيگيری اين موضوع همچنان اتهام های مداخلهء حکومت درکميسيون مستقل انتخابات دوباره تازه شده، استقلاليت کميسيون را يکبارديگر تحت پرسش ميبرد. کمبود برگه های رای که کميسيون آنرا کوچک نمايی کرده و مشکل جزئی تکنيکی مينامند، درآيندهء نه چندان دور به خاموشی قبل از طوفان تبديل خواهد شد.


این مطلب نخست درسایت آرمان ملی با سرخط
 (انتخابات، اشتراک مردم و چالش پيش روی کميسيون مستقل انتخابات) به نشر رسیده است.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

A visit to West-Thames College London

A visit to West-Thames College London
 In this official visit, I talked to media department teachers and students about media situation in post conflict countries, particularly about media in Afghanistan following the collapse of Taliban regime.


Thursday, October 11, 2012

Security Ministers Departure to Worsen Afghan Security Situation

By: Zabihullah Noori

The dismissal of two key security ministers in a critical time when the country is going through the security transition could be considered a serious blow to any government. It could also jeopardize the gains.

Any government's stability is dependent on a triangle of security organizations, the intelligence department, the army and the police. They all work together to defuse any plots against the public and the government, ensure the security of the public and safeguard the territorial integrity of the country by defending the borders.

As agreed with the international community in Lisbon conference, the Nato troops will pull out by 2014 and the security responsibility will gradually be transferred to Afghans in different stages starting from the Capital city of Kabul to big cities and remote villages all across Afghanistan.

However, in addition to a considerable increase in target killing and growing violence in parts of the country, recent incidents in Kunar bordering province with Pakistan have further complicated the security situation of the country. The Pakistani army has fired more than 300 rockets on Kunar province, which on occasions have had human casualties. But the Afghan security forces have done nothing to stop them or to respond militarily. Therefore, the Afghan Member of Parliament called the Afghan Interior Minister, Mr. Besmillah Mohammadi and the Afghan Defense Minister, Mr. Abdul Rahim Wardak for interpellation on their failure in responding to Pakistani Army's bombs and rocket shelling in eastern Afghanistan. As both ministers failed to present convincing evidence to justify their failure in responding to Pakistani troops, the MPs voted for their immediate dismissal from the respective ministries.

The MPs also requested the Afghan president to introduce the new minister nominees in the soonest possible time to the House of Representatives for obtaining vote of confidence, and taking the charge in the above mentioned key security ministries.

The president's office issued a statement accepting the decision of the House or Representative in dismissing the interior and defense ministers over continued cross-border rocket shelling with Pakistan. However, the statement added that both ministers will continue to work in acting roles until he has appointed replacements.

Introducing the disqualified ministers as the acting ministers for the same office is not allowed in the Afghan constitution. However, history shows that Mr. Karzai has in past violated the constitution by keeping disqualified ministers in the acting roles for nearly two years.

The President once again made an effort to play the old game and keep Mr. Mohammadi and Mr. Wardak for the remaining of his term as the acting ministers. However, the MPs and security experts believe that having acting ministers in security sections could jeopardize the country's stability, as the acting ministers lack executive authorities in certain areas.

Mr. Jawed Kohestani, a military expert said in an interview with Afghan media, "Acting roles within the military weakens the strength of the forces because the acting officials do not have executive authorities."

Despite the president's wish, the former defense minister Mr. Abdul Rahim Wardak officially left the office on Tuesday, 7th August, 2012, leaving the president with no choice but to appoint the deputy defense minister, Mr. Enayatullah Nazar as the acting defense minister.
As for the interior ministry, Mr. Mohammadi still runs it as an acting minister.

The departure of defense minister, who have not only been a long term minister in Karzai's cabinet since 2004, but also a close ally in his inner circle could have serious consequences for President dominance as well as for the country's security.

Note: This article was published on www.eurasiareview.com and www.tolonews.com   

افغانستان و چالش بی‌کاری پس از 2014

نوشته: ذبیح الله نوری
در یک دهه گذشته، جامعه جهانی مبالغ هنگفتی را در عرصه بازسازی و نوسازی پروژه‌های عمرانی، صحی و اجتماعی در افغانستان هزینه کرد. این پروژه‌ها علاوه بر بهبود بخشیدن وضعیت زندگی مردم، زمینه‌های خوب اشتغال‌زایی را نیز در سطوح مختلف فراهم ساخت. اما به‌نظر می‌رسد که با خروج نیروهای خارجی، دامنه این پروژه‌ها از کشور برچیده خواهد شد و مردم و حکومت افغانستان، به چالش بزرگ بی‌کاری مواجه خواهند گردید.
جامعه جهانی و افغانستان به توافق رسیده‌اند که نیرو‌های خارجی پس از سال 2014 از این کشور خارج شوند و مسوولیت‌های امنیتی را به نیروهای افغان بسپارند. جامعه جهانی هم‌چنان وعده سپرده تا نیروهای افغان را برای یک دهه پس از خروج، حمایت مالی کند. بر علاوه تعهد حمایت مالی از نیرو‌های افغان، جامعه جهانی هم‌چنان متعهد شده تا مبلغ 16میلیارد دالر را برای بخش ملکی حکومت این کشور، هزینه مشروط کند. شرط عمده جامعه جهانی برای دسترسی افغانستان به این مبلغ 16میلیارد دالری، عملکرد جدی حکومت برای ریشه‌کن ساختن فساد در ادارات مختلف کشور است. جامعه جهانی برای برآورده‌شدن این شرط، آن‌قدر قاطع است که برخلاف کمک‌های ده‌سال گذشته، این مبلغ را در اقساط مختلف و در صورت برآورده‌شدن تعهدات افغانستان در اختیار این کشور قرار خواهد داد. هرگاه در هر مقطع زمانی، افغانستان در برآورده‌ساختن این تعهد ناکام شود، این کمک‌ها از همان زمان به بعد قطع خواهند شد.
حکومت افغانستان ظاهرا در تلاش آن است تا تعهد اخیر خود در برابر جامعه جهانی را جامه عمل بپوشاند. چنان‌که رییس‌جمهور افغانستان اخیر فرمان 164ماده‌ای را صادر کرد که در آن به همه ادارات حکومتی دستور داده شد تا با قاطعیت در برابر فساد اداری مبارزه کنند.
در یک دید کاملا خوش‌بینانه، حتا اگر حکومت افغانستان به زدودن فساد در یک حد پنجاه درصدی هم موفق شود، آیا می‌توان به مشکلات جدی‌ای که افغانستان پس از خروج نیروهای خارجی به آن مواجه خواهد شد، فایق آمد. در صدر مشکلاتی که افغانستان پس از سال 2014 به آن مواجه خواهد شد، بعد از موضوع امنیت داخلی و امنیت مرزها، بی‌کاری در رده سوم قراردارد.
در مورد مشکل امنیتی افغانستان، گزارش‌ها، مقالات، طرح‌ها و تحلیل‌های زیادی توسط آگاهان و کارشناسان داخلی و خارجی نوشته شده است. چیزی که کم‌تر به آن توجه شده است، مشکل بی‌کاری و یافتن راه بیرون‌رفت از آن است. حالا آن‌که بی‌کاری گسترده و فراگیر می‌تواند موارد جدی بی‌امنیتی را بار آورد.
در حال حاضر، جامعه جهانی و نهاد‌های تمویل‌کننده که در راس آن اداره توسعه کمک‌های بین‌المللی ایالات متحده امریکا قرار دارد، پروژه‌های مختلفی را توسط نهاد‌های غیرحکومتی بین‌المللی، نهاد‌های خیریه بین‌المللی و در برخی موارد توسط ادارات حکومتی افغانستان تمویل و تطبیق می‌کند. با آن‌که در راس تقریبا تمامی این پروژه‌ها خارجی‌هااند، اما از مدیران رده دوم تا کارمندان مسلکی در بخش‌های صحت، تعلیم و تربیه، حقوق، زراعت و انجنیری، کارمندان مالی و اداری، ناظران ساحوی، راننده‌ها، کارکنان بخش تنظیف و کارگران مزدبگیر این پروژه‌ها عموما افغان‌ها‌اند.
سازمان‌های بین‌المللی بیشترین پروژه‌های‌شان را توسط شرکت‌های خصوصی ساختمانی افغانی، سازمان‌های غیرحکومتی (ان‌جی‌او)، انجمن‌ها و اتحادیه‌ها به‌صورت قرارداد‌های کوچک عملی می‌کنند. در اکثر ساحات ناامن که هم سازمان‌های بین‌المللی و هم نهاد‌ها و انجمن‌های فوق بنابر دلایل مختلف نتوانند پروژه‌ها را تطبیق کنند، نهاد‌های بین‌المللی آن پروژه‌ها را مستقیما با مردم محل قرارداد می‌کنند.
در حال حاضر نزدیک به 2000سازمان غیرحکومتی افغانی از وزارت اقتصاد مجوز رسمی گرفته‌اند. به اساس آمار این وزارت، در حدود 72000افغان در این سازمان‌ها مصروف کاراند. به همین‌گونه بیشتر از 1700انجمن و اتحادیه ثبت وزارت عدلیه شده‌اند. آمار اداره حمایت از سرمایه‌گذاری در افغانستان (آیسا)، نشان می‌دهد که از سال 2003 بدین‌سو به تعداد 10940شرکت ساختمانی جواز فعالیت دریافت کرده‌اند. این شرکت‌ها بین سال‌های 2003 الی 2010 برای حدود 213350نفر فرصت‌های اشتغال‌زایی را فراهم ساخته‌اند. بیشتر این سازمان‌ها، انجمن‌ها و شرکت‌ها پروژه‌های نهاد‌های تمویل‌کننده جامعه جهانی را در نقاط مختلف افغانستان عملی می‌کنند.
به اساس آمار وزارت مالیه، در سال 2011 این وزارت شش میلیارد افغانی (120میلیون دالر) عواید از مدرک مالیات داشته است. کارمندان نهاد‌ها و سازمان‌های غیرحکومتی در حدود 22درصد این رقم را که برابر می‌شود با 1.3میلیارد افغانی (20میلیون و شش‌صد‌هزار دالر) به خزانه دولت مالیه پرداخته‌اند.
در این شکی نیست که بیشترین پروژه‌های جامعه جهانی به‌خاطر حمایت از حضور نیروهای بین‌المللی در افغانستان طرح و دیزاین شده است. یک گزارش تحقیقی کانگرس امریکا، منتشره نوامبر سال 2011 به نقل از جنرال الن، قوماندان ارشد نیروهای آیساف در افغانستان نوشته است: «ما باید نحوه قراردادهای‌مان را به نوعی بهبود بخشیم تا ماموریت‌مان را به‌صورت کل حمایت کند.»
هم‌چنان یکی از اهداف اصلی جامعه جهانی به‌خاطر برقراری ثبات و کاهش نفوذ مخالفین مسلح دولت در بین مردم را همانا تطبیق پروژه‌ها و به‌کار گماشتن افغان‌ها در نقاط روستایی در تحت برنامه عملیات ضد شورش، اداره «یواس‌ای‌آی‌دی» تشکیل می‌دهد.
بر علاوه پروژه‌های ملکی جامعه جهانی که به حمایت از ماموریت نظامی نیروهای خارجی در افغانستان به اجرا در آورده می‌شوند، بخش نظامی نیروهای خارجی نیز در اشتغال‌زایی در افغانستان نقش عمده داشته است. در حال حاضر هزاران تن از افغان‌ها در مراکز مختلف ناتو در سرتاسر کشور در بخش‌های ترجمه، رسانه، نظرسنجی و امور نظافتی مصروف کاراند. به‌گونه مثال تنها کمپنی «میشن ایسینشل پرسونل» (ام‌ای پی) که یک کمپنی امریکایی است، در حدود 7200 زبان‌شناس و مترجم را برای نیروهای ناتو استخدام کرده است.
از جانب دیگر، تیم‌های بازسازی ولایتی در تحت پوشش ناتو نیز مصروف اجرای پروژه‌های بازسازی و نوسازی‌اند. بیشتراین پروژه‌ها توسط شرکت‌های خصوصی ساختمانی و سازمان‌های غیرحکومتی افغانی عملی می‌شوند. البته تازه نیست تصور شود که بر علاوه کارمندان دایمی این شرکت‌ها و سازمان‌های غیرحکومتی، تعداد کثیری از انجنیران، کارگران ماهر و مزدورکاران در مقطع‌های مختلف از این پروژه‌ها مستفید شده و مزد حاصل می‌کنند.
بدون شک با خروج نیرو‌های خارجی از افغانستان، دامنه این پروژه‌های بزرگ نیز از این کشور برچیده می‌شود و کتله وسیعی مردم دنبال کار خواهند گشت.
این در حالی است که هرگاه حکومت افغانستان به‌خاطر به‌دست آوردن کمک‌های جامعه جهانی با جدیت در برابر فساد مبارزه نکند، نه تنها قادر به اشتغال‌زایی بیشتر نخواهد بود بلکه بر رقم بی‌کاری نیز خواهد افزود. زیرا یکی از اقداماتی اصلاحاتی که حکومت باییست عملی کند، همانا اصلاح ادارات این دستگاه خواهد بود. در حال حاضر حکومت افغانستان بنابر نبود یک سیستم منظم اداری حکومت‌داری، ساده‌ترین راه حل برای مشکل بی‌کاری را همانا ایجاد پست‌های موازی و غیرضروری مانند مشاور، کارشناس ارشد، سخنگو و معاونین سخنگو و تشکیل کمیسیون‌های متعدد و گماشتن افراد ناکاره در سطوح بلند دانسته است. رییس‌جمهور افغانستان شاید نخستین رییس‌جمهور در تاریخ معاصر جهان باشد که بیشتر از یک‌صد مشاور دارد. وزارت‌خانه‌های مختلف در مرکز، ریاست‌های عمومی، مقام‌های ولایت‌ها و حتا روسای واحد‌های اداری در سطح ولایات نیز به پیروی از رییس‌جمهور این روند را کماکان تعقیب کرده‌اند.
بنا اصلاح کردن ادارات مختلف و از بین بردن پست‌های موازی و غیرضروری در ادارات حکومتی، کم‌شدن پروژه‌های جامعه جهانی پس از خروج نیروهای بین‌المللی، خروج نیرو‌های ناتو و کاهش چشم‌گیر قرارداد‌های ساختمانی و اکمالاتی این سازمان، ناکارایی وزارت‌خانه‌ها و ادارات حکومتی در طرح‌ریزی برنامه‌های اشتغال‌زایی همه و همه افغانستان را پس از سال 2014 در برابر یک موج عظیم بی‌کاری قرار خواهد داد

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